“The decisions of our past are the architects of our present.” — Dan Brown
“Learn to make non-fatal or easily reversible decisions as quickly as possible. Fast (not rushed) decisions preserve usable attention for what matters. It’s deliberation—the time we vacillate over and consider each decision—consumes our attention. Embrace a choice-minimal lifestyle.” — [@ferriss4hourWorkweekEscape2011]
Naval Ravikant
We live in an age of infinite leverage. What I mean by that is that your actions can be multiplied a thousandfold, either by broadcasting a podcast or by investing capital or by having people work for you or by writing code. So because of that, the impacts of good decision-making are much higher than they used to be because now you can influence thousands or millions of people through your decisions or your code. So clear mind leads to better (sound) judgment leads to a better outcome. So a happy, calm, peaceful person will make better decisions and have better outcomes. So if you want to operate at peak performance, you have to learn how to tame your mind. Just like you have to learn how to tame your body.
If you want to make the wrong decision, ask everyone.
How to Make Good Decisions?
- When faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself what your 80-year-old self would want you to do.
- Anytime you feel a high activation state of any kind of positive/negative emotions or internal arousal, you should pause/stop and reflect, because what’s happening is it’s revealing to you something very important.
- By reflecting on these states, we can uncover important lessons and insights that can inform our future decisions and actions.
- If you don’t stop to think about why I’m so upset or why I’m so happy, you’re gonna miss an important lesson. (similar to Alchemy 煉金術 & Avocados 1)
- The Secretary Problem (The 37 Percent Rule) 撿石子理論
- It implies that the optimal win probability is always at least 1/e (e is Napier’s Constant or Euler’s Number), and that the latter holds even in a much greater generality.
- 最佳觀察期為整條路段長度的 1/e ~ 0.36788 (略大於 1/3)
- Examples
- 擇偶
- 雇員
- 買房
- It implies that the optimal win probability is always at least 1/e (e is Napier’s Constant or Euler’s Number), and that the latter holds even in a much greater generality.
- Trust your gut
Look for single decision that removes hundreds or thousands of other decisions.
“Don’t make a hundred decisions when one will do.” — Jim Collins
| Type I | Type II |
|---|---|
| One-directional | Bi-directional |
| One-way door | Two-way door |
| Irreversible | Reversible |
| 三思而後行 | 三行而後思 |
Two types of decision-makers
- Maximizers: People who want the “absolute best” option. They may leave happiness on the table.
- Satisficers: People who want the “good enough” option. They may leave achievement on the table.
See also: Be primarily internally driven
When faced with any key decision, you effectively choose one of two potential characters: Investor or Borrower.
- The Investor is a long-term thinker who makes an investment to delay gratification.
- Investments compound positively and the future self cashes in on the rewards.
- The Borrower is a short-term thinker who takes out a loan to experience pleasure now.
- Loans accrue interest negatively and the future self is stuck with the bill.
- When I can do a lot to influence the outcome, I’m less worried about risk. Even if the choice appears risky on the surface, I can likely create a good outcome with effort.
- When I can’t do much to influence the outcome, I’m more risk averse. Even my best effort won’t move the needle.
- Your ability to influence the outcome after a decision is made is a crucial thing to consider.
“If you have 2 choices to make and they’re relatively equal (50-50), take the path that is more difficult and painful in the short term.” — Naval Ravikant
“Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.” — Jerzy Gregorek
- Short-term pain typically creates compounding long-term gain.
- Short-term cost pays long-term dividend.
- Every gain in life comes from compound interests. Almost all mistakes in life come from short-term thinking.
- 先苦後甘 > 先甘後苦
- Hard now, easy later.
- Always choose harder right over easier wrong.
Razors
= heuristics/principles that amplify your decisions
= rule of thumbs that simplifies the decision-making process
- The Rooms Razor
- If you have a choice between entering two rooms, choose the room where you’re more likely to be the dumbest/weakest one in the room.
- Once you’re in the room, talk less and listen more.
- Bad for your ego—great for your growth.
- The Arena Razor
- When faced with two paths, choose the path that puts you in the arena.
- It’s easy to throw rocks from the sidelines. It’s scary and lonely in the arena—but it’s where growth happens.
- The Duck Test
- If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
- You can determine a lot about a person by observing their habitual actions and characteristics.
- When someone tells you who they are, believe them the first time.
- The Hanlon’s Razor
- The Hitchens’ Razor & Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword
- Anything asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
- If something cannot be settled by reasonable experiment or observation, it’s not worth debating.
- The Bragging Razor
- If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.
- If a person tells you why their thing (city, relationship, or job) is great, take it with a pinch of salt.
- If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim.
- If a person tells you why their thing (city, relationship, or job) is terrible, take it like a handful of gold.
- Beware of Trojan Horses (特洛伊木馬)
- If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.
- The Luck Razor
- When choosing two paths, choose the path that has a larger luck surface area.
- Taleb’s Surgeon
- If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one that doesn’t “look the part” / with the least amount of charisma.
- The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.
See also:
Footnotes
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Not Yet → Not Yet → Not Yet → Not Yet → Time To Eat → Too Late ↩