“Our life always expresses the result of our dominant thoughts.” — Soren Kierkegaard
“On any given day, you may struggle with your habits because you’re too busy or too tired or too overwhelmed or hundreds of other reasons. Over the long run, the real reason you fail to stick with habits is that your self-image gets in the way. This is why you can’t get too attached to one version of your identity. Progress requires unlearning. Becoming the best version of yourself requires you to continuously edit your beliefs, and to upgrade and expand your identity.” — [@clearAtomicHabitsEasy2018]
從二極體到光譜 — 擺脫二元論的思維 1
二極體的特性是只有兩極，就像世間事物常被簡化為對與錯、黑與白、是與非。然而，世界並不是如此非黑即白地簡單。如果可以那倒輕鬆了些。但事實上，世事更像一條光譜。正如股癌在《灰階思考》中所提到的: 「在黑與白之間的灰階中，存在著無限可能的色調。」
這種思考方式提醒我們，絕大多數問題其實存在更多層次與可能性，值得我們跳脫二元框架，以更開放的視角探索世界的多樣性與複雜性。
See also: Duality versus Polarity
“Strong opinions, loosely/weakly held.” — Any opinions I have formed can be changed based on accumulated personal experience and information that comes my way.
The fastest way to an effective forecast is often through a sequence of lousy forecasts. Instead of withholding judgment until an exhaustive search for data is complete, I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information available, and then systematically tear it apart, using the insights gained to guide my search for further indicators and information. Iterate the process a few times, and it is surprising how quickly one can get to a useful forecast. Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is “strong opinions, weakly held.” Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the “strong opinion” part. Then – and this is the “weakly held” part – prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result. This process is equally useful for evaluating an already-final forecast in the face of new information. It sensitizes one to the weak signals of changes coming over the horizon and keeps the hapless forecaster from becoming so attached to their model that reality intrudes too late to make a difference. More generally, “strong opinions weakly held” is often a useful default perspective to adopt in the face of any issue fraught with high levels of uncertainty, whether one is venturing a forecast or not. Try it at a cocktail party the next time a controversial topic comes up; it is an elegant way to discover new insights — and duck that tedious bore who loudly knows nothing but won’t change their mind!— Paul Saffo
See also:
Footnotes
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Binary Thinking ↩